In my book, To Concerned Americans, a chart on page 77 shows the percent changes in federal debt versus GDP, average home price, and median incomes through 2018. Below is an updated version of the chart through the year 2023 with additional information not provided in the original showing the political party and presiding speakers controlling the House through the period 1967-2023, the debt to GDP ratios at specific points in time, and a few other time references of note. Here is the updated chart.
In general, this chart illustrates the out of control spending that Congress has been unable to wean themselves from since 9/11. That event marks a radical turning point in federal spending attitudes and understandings. In four years from 1995 to 1999, growth in federal deficit spending was briefly brought under control by a Republican majority in the House led by Newt Gingrich who had run under a clearly defined set of goals referred to as The Contract with America. This reversed a trend that Congress had struggled with for the previous fourteen years, trying to agree on various proposals to self-regulate themselves regarding spending.
Then 9/11 happened, and as I discussed in my book, politicians began passing laws and spending money in earnest to show that they were doing something to protect the nation. Although some initiatives were worth while, a lot of money was unnecessarily spent on projects that do nothing to increase the security of the nation. Laws were also passed that created new agencies and programs of questionable value to our national security, and in some cases compromised individual Constitutional rights.
In our modern world, the greatest component needed to protect against external aggression is a strong economy supporting superior technical and productive capacity. The one primary purpose for creation of a federal government to unify these United States is collective national defense. Federal spending driven by a perceived need or desire to spend money untethered to this collective purpose is wasteful and produces results contrary to the intended purpose. Spending unguided by the principles I discuss in my book damages the economy and compromises the security of the United States.
The habit of spending that began after 9/11 resulted in a sharp increase in the rate of debt accumulation. Six years of this, combined with relaxed regulations and overstimulation of the housing market by federal programs, produced a perfect storm of overvalued securitized home loans, 80% of which were funded by the federal entities Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Although signs of problems were present late in 2006 and early 2007, the stock market continued to climb to a peak on October 9, 2007, after which it tumbled to eventually lose approximately half its value. By 2008, thirty percent of those securitized loans held by the fed entities were under water.
In addition to bailouts of financial institutions and major manufacturers, Congress reacted by doubling down on stimulus spending. All the spending used borrowed money. This creates debt without increasing productive capacity that can employ more individuals. There are plenty of politicians and economists who claim that stimulus spending helps bring the country out of a recession, but as I point out in my book, we have weathered many recessions without such spending, and government regulation and spending actually exacerbates the problem.
You don’t solve a flagging over-stimulated economy by spending more money; you are merely digging a deeper hole while postponing our day of reckoning. Since the year 2001, Congress has never come close to dealing with the debt issue. For decades now, Congress has failed to pass a budget in a timely manner, and simply passes continuing resolutions to carry on the spending essentially unrestrained. The longer this goes on, the worse the reckoning will be. In the real world where individuals and businesses can’t print more money to pay their bills, such irresponsible practice is called malfeasance.
As we prepare to vote in the November election, I urge people to consider what this chart illustrates. As I warn in my book, you should not judge a candidate by what the politicians say, but by what they have done. If you look at the debt line for the last 44 years, there are three periods where the rise in debt vastly out paces the growth of GDP, and two of these are where the line is steepest, representing the fastest growth in debt. The following table illustrates that all three of these periods were when Democrats controlled the House of Representatives. Notice in particular what happened when Joe Biden became president with a Democrat controlled House of Representatives, the line nearly went vertical.
Table of Political Party in Control of House of Representatives vs Debt/GDP Ratio
Party in Control From To ∆ Debt/GDP Ratio
Democrat 1967 1995 27%
Republican 1995 2007 -3%
Democrat 2007 2011 43%
Republican 2011 2019 0%
Democrat 2019 2023 18%
Republican 2023 2024 -2%
The large positive numbers in the table represent large increases in debt relative to GDP. This is what happened during Democrat controlled Congresses over the last 44 years. Periods of Republican controlled Congresses show GDP growth proportionally keeping pace with growth in debt, or slightly gained on the debt; not necessarily a good outcome, but better than the overwhelming increases seen during the Democrat tenures. In all cases, except a year or so before 9/11, before the Contract with America was abandoned, the debt continued to increase.
Bear this in mind when Democrat politicians proclaim what good things they have supported that involved spending money to provide you with some benefit or supposed savings. Bear this in mind when you hear Kamala Harris promise you a future needing only one wage earner per household; remember that she and her colleagues endorse all the policies and political decisions that brought all of this crushing debt down upon us. All those things have been paid for with money borrowed or created out of your children’s and grandchildren’s pocketbooks. All that spending they are doing is buying your vote with your grandchildren’s future and burdening you now with vastly higher prices at the supermarket, car dealer, appliance stores, and housing market relative to your personal incomes.
They have also placed our nation in a precarious position relative to our enemies, and some supposed friends, including Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Iran, who are openly conspiring to displace the US dollar with their own currency backed by gold and an aggregate of their fiat currencies excluding the dollar, which when they are successful, will significantly reduce the value of the dollar in world markets, that could plunge the United States into severe economic distress and insolvency. I wish I was being hyperbolic, but I am merely trying to clearly state our current reality in large part brought about by irresponsible politicians in Washington DC, primarily Democrats.